Monday, October 24, 2016

Federal Reserve System and US Monetary Policy Discussion

How did the Federal Reserve evolved since 1913?

The development of the Federal Reserve came out of the Aldrich-Vreeland Act of 1908 that was in response to the 1907 panic, which provided emergency currency. It established the National Monetary Commission to come up with a long-term plan to address future financial crisis and they suggested a banker-controlled plan versus a decentralized central bank. With the election of Woodrow Wilson, also known as the father of public administration, solicited advice from Virginia Rep. Carter Glass (Federal Reserve, 2016; Heritage Foundation 2016).

Rep. Glass eventually became the chairman of the House Committee on Banking and Finance. Glass partnered with H. Parker Willis to come up with a central bank proposal. In December of 1912, they presented President Wilson with the Federal Reserve Act. In 1913, President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law. In 1914 the central bank began operations, then from 1914 to 1919 WWI broke out, and banks were able to operate normally because of emergency currency issued under the Aldrich-Vreeland Act of 1908. In the 1920, after WWI Benjamin Strong was the head of the New York Fed from 1914 till his death in 1928. He realized that gold could no longer be what controlled credit. Strong during his chairmanship encouraged relationships with other central banks in other countries, particularly the Bank of England (Federal Reserve, 2016).

The stock market crashed in October of 1929. In Milton Friedman’s film “Freedom to Choose,” he said that the bank failures in the South and Midwest created a recession, however it did not become a crisis till it reached New York, and the failure of the Bank of the United States started the domino effect of “bank runs,” (customers withdrawing their money from banks) in New York and across the country. From 1930 – 33 10,000 banks failed. The Federal Reserve at the time that was created to help prevent the eventual depression did not do enough to help intervene, by preventing the failure of the Bank of the United States (Federal Reserve, 2016).

The Great Depression changed the way the Federal Reserve would respond to economic crisis with the passing of the Glass-Steagall Act, which called for the separation of commercial and investment banks and also providing securities for Federal Reserve notes. The Act also established the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and President Roosevelt also ended the gold standard. After WWII the Treasury-Fed Accord was created so the Fed was not obligated to monetize the debt of the Treasury at a fixed rate. This was essential in how monetary policy is followed by the Fed today. In the 80’s there was a move to deregulate banks, and in 1999 the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act passed which overturned the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933. This helped pave the way for the mortgage crisis, because of sub-prime loans and complex derivatives in 2007 and recession following the failure of both Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual (Wigan, 2007; Federal Reserve, 2016). To help prevent the 2008 recession to turn into a depression the Fed stepped in and used unconventional policy tools to save the banking industry and climb out of the recession faster.

What does Ben Bernanke, past chair of the Federal Reserve; think about how the Fed is now coping with the post-2008 crisis

Bernanke is no longer the chair of the Federal Reserve and last year was on a book tour promoting his book, “The Courage to Act.” He believes that the recovery from the crisis was put on the Fed to fix when there should have been more done by Congress and political leaders, who were refusing to provide more stimulus measures. Because of the government shut downs and lack of quick and decisive action from Congress it slowed growth and delayed the recovery (Fernandes, 2015). 

Bernanke is critical of Congress trying to create legislation that would give Congress the ability to set interest rates and not the Fed. He notes that the current political climate which is very polarized would only create deadlocks in Congress on important economic issues (Fernandes, 2015).

How, from Bernanke’s point of view, there is a direct connection between the Great Depression and this recent mortgage crisis

Barnanke states, “September and October of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in global history, including the Great Depression” (Egan, 2014, para. 1). Barnanke had written several papers on the Great Depression. David Jones, a former Fed economist said, “The solvency of the whole banking system was in question” (Egan, 2014, para. 15). The effects of the mortgage crisis were far reaching, and overseas banks were in need of saving, too. The difference between the Fed of the Great Depression and the Fed of the Great Recession was the response to the crisis. Barnanke’s Fed responded aggressively after Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual both went bankrupt. Because 12 of the biggest financial institutions were at risk of failure all at the same time. Barnanke learned from the mistake of the Fed’s response or lack of during the 1930s. He knew if they did not act and intervene by providing the billions of bailout and stimulus dollars needed to save the banks and the economy, we would have been looking at a crisis that would have surpassed the Great Depression (Egan, 2014; Fernandes, 2015).

What risks in current monetary policy may be with respect to the long-term performance of the American economy.

The slowdown in global economic growth has contributed to the rising dollar and declining commodity prices. Net exports have made noticeable negative contributions to U.S. growth. Our aging population, savings rates globally increasing, lower productivity, lower interest rates around the world, is deterring structural investments and capitol stock which can lead to secular stagnation or lack of economic growth. Lower potential for growth means lower returns on investments (Evans, 2016).

Moreover, the incoming labor force does not match the needed experience of retiring baby boomers which can also effect slower economic growth. Monetary policies can do little to address labor force trends or technological progress. The policies that were enacted after the Great Recession has helped to slowly build our current economy back to pre-recession numbers however long-term growth will depend on the U.S. to increase productive resources (Evans, 2016). In conclusion, our current monetary policies will need to address slow long-term growth.

References

Egan, M. (2014). 2008: Worse than the Great Depression? Retrieved September 16, 2016 from http://money.cnn.com/2014/08/27/news/economy/ben-bernanke-great-depression/

Evans, C.L. (2016). The Implications of Slow Growth for Monetary Policy. Retrieved September 16, 2016 from https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/speeches/2016/04-05-implications-monetary-policy-evans-credit-suisse-hong-kong-print-pdf.pdf

Federal Reserve (n.d.). History of the Federal Reserve. Retrieved September 15, 2016 from https://www.federalreserveeducation.org/about-the-fed/history

Fernandes, D. (2015). Promoting book in Boston, Ben Bernanke defend Fed. Retrieved September 15, 2016 from https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2015/10/13/ben-bernanke-defends-fed-actions-during-financial-crisis/vVGrnnjNwDlPmk1yR7r14N/story.html

Friedman, M. (1980). Anatomy of a Crisis: Free to Choose. YouTube Video. Retrieved September 16, 2016 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWVoPrntBso

The Heritage Foundation (2016). Woodrow Wilson on Administration. Retrieved September 15, 2016 from http://www.heritage.org/initiatives/first-principles/primary-sources/woodrow-wilson-on-administration

Wigan, D. (2012). Derivatives markets may hold key to U.S. recession. Retrieved September 16, 2016 from http://www.reuters.com/article/derivatives-us-recession-idUSL1171898420070412

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